Will Nadal Win at Roland Garros 2011?

The list of men’s singles champions at Roland Garros for the last six years is shown in the table. Just a quick glance makes it seem that the answer to my question is obvious: of course he will! The only time he has not won since 2005, was in 2009 when he was injured and did not participate in the tournament. However, this year may the first year where Nadal is not the out-and-out favourite to win, with a surging Novak Djokovic apparently invincible on all surfaces this year. With both men making it through the early rounds, fans and neutrals alike will be licking their lips at the prospect of a Grand Slam final between the two tyros 2011. Nadal has the better record of the two, victorious 16 times against the Serb, with 11 defeats. However, Djokovic is very much the man of the moment, and has beaten Nadal in two consecutive clay court Masters finals. The true test of the world number two’s credentials will be whether he will be able to beat Nadal over five sets, a challenging task when faced with the Spaniard’s tenacity and determination.

After the first two rounds in the men’s singles tournament at Roland Garros, there have been few upsets and shocks. All of the top ranked men’s players are progressing through the tournament with Federer and Murray both getting through with ease against low ranked opposition. Both players could yet surprise us, with both having a lot to play for. Federer would love to show the world that he is still a force to be reckoned with, and what better place to do it then on Nadal’s favourite surface. Murray also is almost desperate to get his hands on a first Grand Slam title, but clay is his least favourite surface.

Other possible challengers to Nadal’s crown include Del Potro, who has recovered from a series of injuries to play in this tournament. His prospects are weighed down by the fact that to even reach the quarter finals he would have to beat Djokovic. Other contenders include Soderling, Tsonga, Monfils, Ferrer and Gasquet; who reached the semi-finals in the Rome Masters tournament, losing out to Nadal. However you feel that none of these will truly be able to challenge Nadal.

What may be worrying for Nadal fans, is that he laboured to a win against the big American John Isner only in five sets. Isner, most famous for that marathon match against Nicholas Mahut at Wimbledon 2010, is predominantly a grass court player with a big serve but weaker ground strokes. That Nadal struggled, could be a sign of nerves and lack of confidence in the first year where serious doubts remain over his ability to beat Djokovic. By contrast, Djokovic, Federer and Murray have all had straight sets victories and will be fresher in the latter stages of the tournament.

If all the big players continue to make passage through the tournament, it won't be long before we have some enthralling encounters in front of us.